Nature-based solutions: 4 predictions for 2026
The opinions expressed here by Trellis expert contributors are their own, not those of Trellis.
COP30 didn’t deliver the drama of Glasgow or Paris. But in the tropical heat of Belém, the ground quietly shifted. As we look to 2026, here are four predictions for what comes next for businesses serious about nature and climate.
Forest finance grows up
The world has a new pathway to scale up tropical forest finance. The Tropical Forests Forever Facility, a new initiative launched at COP30 to provide long-term payments to countries that protect standing forests, marks a major political signal that the global community is beginning to treat forest protection as core climate infrastructure — not just as a conservation priority, but as a central plank of climate finance and cooperation.
But it still faces significant challenges, such as securing early institutional structures, clarifying governance and winning the trust of forest countries and communities alike. Next year will be about building on that initial momentum. Alongside it, jurisdictional forest protection credits are poised for liftoff and 2026 credit issuance from two Brazilian states, Acre and Tocantins, under a third-party standard, will test whether buyers show up for scale and integrity.
Forest finance isn’t just about carbon. It’s about establishing jurisdictional credibility, transparent governance, inclusion of local communities and reducing risk for institutional investors. It’s also about timing: the Forest Finance Roadmap — launched at New York Climate Week by a coalition of 34 governments — outlines a six-point plan to redirect commodity finance, scale high-integrity credit demand and reform fiscal policies. In 2026, it aims to catalyze early progress on all six fronts, providing clear signals to the private sector and unlocking more coordinated public finance.
For companies serious about net zero, 2026 is the year to move from pilot to portfolio. Forest-positive procurement, long-term offtakes and local partnerships will become essential to climate credibility. We likely will see the emergence of new blended finance platforms, sovereign-backed forest bonds, and new corporate alliances structured around forest investment principles. And crucially, the narrative is maturing — from saving trees to investing in forest economies.
Durability becomes the new north star
One of the most significant narrative shifts in 2025 came from science, not policy. A coalition of researchers, advocates and standards bodies reframed the permanence debate around carbon storage. Instead of binary labels of permanent or not, we now have a more sophisticated framing: durability. How long carbon stays out of the atmosphere, how we manage risk over time and how we compensate if it reverses.
That shift is already shaping market infrastructure. The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) is revising its Core Carbon Principles to include clearer rules on reversals and risk buffers. The Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) is expected to finalize its second version of Net-Zero Standard in 2026, which will likely clarify the role of durable removals in neutralizing residual emissions.
What’s emerging is a portfolio approach to tackling the carbon problem: combining reductions and removals, shorter- and longer-duration storage and a mix of investments that together increase resilience, integrity and long-term value.
For companies, this is a call to action. It’s no longer enough to buy credits and be done. Next year will reward those who build blended portfolios, create buffers to compensate for risk and communicate climate contributions with honesty and transparency. The durability narrative, increasingly, will be a litmus test for integrity.
Local communities alter the finance landscape
At COP30, local communities weren’t just represented — they led. Global land commitments to Indigenous-led initiatives now cover 395 million acres. And jurisdictional forest protection programs have committed a majority of proceeds to benefit locals.
While it’s too early to call this a wholesale shift, 2026 could mark an inflection point. Countries are under pressure to implement land titling reforms that recognize Indigenous land rights and strengthen tenure security. At the same time, more communities are looking to shape the terms of engagement — including through locally governed carbon programs and greater say in benefit-sharing mechanisms.
For business, this means rethinking relationships on the ground. Increasingly, investors and customers expect co-design, shared governance and transparency around who benefits. Companies that take this seriously will be better placed to build credibility and unlock the next generation of community-driven, high-integrity nature investments. 2026 will test which organizations are ready to shift from passive support to genuine partnership.
Carbon markets find their footing
After a bruising few years, carbon markets are recalibrating. Article 6.4 – the part of the Paris Agreement that will introduce a centralized, UN-run carbon crediting mechanism — is expected to issue its first credits by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, Article 6.2 — which allows countries to trade emissions reductions directly with one another — is expanding, with more nations moving beyond pilots into formalized bilateral deals backed by clearer reporting rules. And voluntary markets, long plagued by quality concerns, are shifting from volume to value.
Corporate buyers are coming back, and they’re wiser. Forward purchase agreements are replacing spot buying. Credits are being scrutinized for environmental integrity, community benefit and alignment with national systems. Some standards are embedding nested jurisdictional approaches, while the ICVCM is tightening eligibility through its Core Carbon Principles.
Corporate language around claims is changing, too. More companies are moving away from blanket terms such as “carbon neutral” in favor of “climate contributions” – a framing that better reflects the complexity of climate action. For corporate sustainability teams, this signals the need for more precise language, clearer disclosures and communications strategies that align with integrity standards as much as emissions targets.
Final word
NBS will remain central to corporate climate strategies, but as climate investments, not reputational cover. The more transparently they’re framed, the more value they’ll create. Expect to see ratings agencies and ESG frameworks begin to reward NBS investments not as liabilities to be offset, but as assets delivering adaptation, mitigation and community value.
2026 won’t be the year of silver bullets. But it might be the year we stop asking nature to do everything, and start investing in what it can uniquely deliver – now and for the long haul.
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