The opinions expressed here by Trellis expert contributors are their own, not those of Trellis.​

Despite media headlines about government backsliding on climate in North America and Europe, evidence presented at COP 30 in Brazil shows climate policy is actually on the rise globally, with developing countries leading the way. 

Not only are we seeing a diffusion of government climate policy, but trends in the quality, ambition and rigor of climate policies are getting stronger. For example, our Climate Policy Monitor at the University of Oxford spotlights leadership in key Latin American and African nations with strong disclosure rules, including requirements on Scope 3 reporting and engagement — a trend that lines up with recent findings about increased corporate commitments to sustainable procurement.

Also, governments at this year’s COP 30 in Bèlem took to the stage to declare their own commitments to sustainable public procurement. This declaration represents a critical demand signal from governments to the private sector, for sustainable products, processes and practices across their own supply chains.

To deliver on their nationally determined climate contributions, governments have much to learn, and to buy, from companies leading on sustainable supplier engagement, product innovation and industrial collaboration. 

Yet procurement rules in too many countries still require officials to pick the lowest upfront cost option without considering their own stated goals for the future. That decision, repeated millions of times across jurisdictions, entrenches old industries and delays the very technologies governments claim they want to nourish.

Fixing the procurement gap

To fix this gap, 35 countries at COP30 with growing commitments have launched a new collective plan committing to:

• Embed sustainability in procurement policies
• Expand green procurement to more spending areas and support local green markets
• Involve diverse communities in shaping solutions 
• Collaborate globally to share knowledge and track progress in order to build institutional capacity to advance the sustainable public procurement agenda

A major driver

In advancing this declaration, the Brazilian government acknowledged that public procurement represents 13 to 20 percent of global GDP and drives roughly 15 percent of global emissions. No single buyer on Earth purchases more cement, steel, food, transport services, buildings or infrastructure than the public sector. 

So when governments decide to purchase greener options, markets shift at pace. When they don’t, businesses leading in sustainability are left fighting gravity without demand to justify their investment. Sustainable government procurement policies offer a future in which public promises match public spending. 

Our research on green public procurement across 11 countries shows many co-benefits from such efforts and some inspiring examples of progress. Public purchasers are shifting what they buy, who they buy from and how they buy. For example:

• Korea, Japan, the EU and India are using national eco-labelling schemes to drive sustainable consumption and signal demand for climate-friendly goods and services. 
• In Canada and the United Kingdom, suppliers must now meet minimum standards of corporate climate governance, including disclosures and transition plans, before bidding for major contracts.
• Australia is weaving environmental objectives directly into its procurement law, linking payment and performance to measurable sustainability outcomes. 
• Brazil and Kenya are using public food procurement to support indigenous and female farmers, proving that social inclusion and climate goals can go hand in hand. 
• And from Ireland to California to the UAE, green public procurement is transforming construction, reshaping demand for green cement, steel and insulation.

No longer a niche

Companies leading on corporate procurement have taught us that procurement is a strategic engine, not an administrative sidenote. Embedding sustainability into purchasing has helped firms future-proof their supply chains, save costs, protect against risk and spur innovation. 

Governments, with even greater buying power, and public risk can do the same at national scale and businesses need them to. Without strong, consistent public demand for low-carbon goods, even the most ambitious companies struggle to justify investment in new technologies and materials. Green public procurement helps close that gap, often without new or additional spending. It aligns incentives, rewards climate leadership and creates stable demand.

Brazil’s COP30 declaration is more than a policy signal — it’s a chance for governments and companies to finally pull in the same direction towards a healthier future. If countries seize it, they’ll accelerate the rise of clean, competitive industries; if they hesitate, they risk losing their most ambitious businesses, or leaving them without the markets they need to grow.

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Former American Forests President and CEO Jad Daley has been named president of Terraformation, a startup that connect companies with forestry projects. The role is a new position designed to strengthen partnerships and unlock the capital for the company, which was founded in 2019 by Yishan Wong, previously Reddit CEO.

Terraformation pitches itself as an extension of company sustainability teams that can identify, design and grow forestry projects to deliver high-quality carbon credits. Current projects include mangrove restoration in Ghana, restoration of degraded forest in the Congo Basin and the rehabilitation of ecosystems in Colombia to restore wildlife habitats and connect migration routes.

Time 100 list

At American Forests, Daley oversaw work on urban tree equity and large-scale ecosystem restoration that was backed by corporate partners including Bank of America, the Coca-Cola Foundation and Salesforce. He also served as vice president for conservation programs at The Trust for Public Land, where he focused on climate resilience and community-driven conservation efforts. Last year, he was one of 100 leaders named on the Time 100 Climate list.

Daley’s new role, announced this week at the climate negotiations in Belém, Brazil, will see him work with Wong and team to expand global partnerships and advance blended finance models. Daley will also be tasked with leveraging his non-profit leadership experience to raise funds from philanthropic, public and private-sector institutions.

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The past 12 months have seen a surge of interest in methane, a powerful greenhouse gas that to date is responsible for around a third of global warming. The market for methane-reduction credits is booming, and a new emissions accounting method offers companies a more holistic means of assessing the impact of the gas.

That momentum could soon be boosted by the launch of Mission Methane, a new competition from XPRIZE designed to accelerate the progress of fledgling methods for avoiding methane releases or removing the gas from the atmosphere. 

The decision to prioritize a methane prize reflects an awareness that tackling the gas can provide near-term climate benefits that would complement existing strategies to address carbon dioxide, explained David Babson, XPRIZE’s executive vice president for climate, energy and nature. 

“Methane is the one to target to arrest warming quickly, and CO₂ is the one to target to stabilize the climate long term and to end the long-term warming trend,” he said.

Why methane matters

Mission Methane was birthed at the annual meeting in Los Angeles in April 2024 of the XPRIZE Brain Trust, a group of more than 100 advisers from academia, business and other sectors. Around 10 potential prizes in climate, energy and nature were mooted, including one on methane. Brain trust experts in those areas whittled the list down to four over the summer, which were presented at a second meeting, known as the conclave.

Around a month before the group assembled, the importance of methane was recognized in a National Academies for Science, Engineering and Medicine report on the gas. Around two-thirds of released methane leaves the atmosphere after 12 years, but during that time its impact on warming is up to 150 times greater than that of CO₂. That means cutting methane levels will have an outsized and relatively quick impact. The study, said Babson, “highlighted the unique opportunity to target methane as the greenhouse gas that could arrest warming the most quickly.”

The report added weight to arguments for a methane prize, as did testimony from Rob Jackson, an earth scientist at Stanford University who spoke at the conclave. “I have to give him a lot of credit,” said Babson. “He had such credibility when he spoke and was very eloquent.” When the votes were counted, methane emerged as the next XPRIZE priority, alongside a women’s’ health competition known as Ovarian Decoder.

Designing the prize

Babson is designing the competition and raising money for the prize pot. Taking inspiration from the XPRIZE for carbon removal, awarded in April to a company that helps smallholder farmers draw down carbon, competitors in Mission Methane will demonstrate technologies that can prevent the release of a certain amount of methane in a year, or remove the same amount from the atmosphere. Babson expects it will be on the order of 100 tons — relatively small, but the winner will also have to demonstrate a plausible path to scaling their technology.

On the avoided emissions side, Babson said the focus will be on dilute sources, such as livestock operations. Biotech companies developing vaccines that disrupt the formation of methane in cows’ stomachs would be one type of contender, he noted. Potential removal technologies include HVAC filters that react methane with oxygen to form CO₂, a less potent greenhouse gas.

Projects that capture methane from point sources, such as disused oil wells, will not qualify because the technologies involved are already market-ready, said Babson. But the need to accelerate use of point-source methods was discussed during an XPRIZE session at Trellis Impact 25, held last month in San Jose, California. Babson said he came away from the session convinced of the benefits of growing the market for more mature methane technologies and is now working on a parallel funding mechanism for that, likely based on an advanced market commitment structure.

His priority for now, however, is convincing donors to back Mission Methane. A prize fund of $20 million to $50 million would be sufficient to spur the innovation he hopes to see. “In a perfect world, we would get that commitment later this year and be in a position to launch the prize by late of Q1 or early Q2 of 2026,” he said.

Meanwhile, the evidence continues to mount: A paper published last month in Science found that methane mitigation efforts have the potential to reduce the damages caused by climate change by more than a trillion dollars by 2050, while costing only one-sixth of that.

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Attempts by companies to eliminate deforestation from supply chains show huge divergence in success, with leaders already coming close to having eliminated the practice for several key commodities and some laggards demonstrating no effort in the same areas, a new report finds.

Unilever, Danone and Nestlé are among the companies to report having verified that 90 percent or more of their purchases of palm oil, soy, timber, pulp and paper come from sources that do not cause deforestation or the conversion of other natural ecosystems. Nestlé and Marks and Spencer, a U.K. retailer, also achieved 100 percent deforestation-free sourcing for cattle, according to Ceres, a nonprofit that works with investors, companies and policymakers.

“There are challenges to achieving deforestation and conversion-free supply chains, particularly with certain commodities,” said Meryl Richards, program director for food and forests at Ceres. “But we’re seeing here that it’s possible to overcome those challenges.”

At the other end of the scale of the 53 food brands, retailers and other companies assessed by Ceres were BJ’s Wholesale Club, a discount retailer, and Bloomin’ Brands, which owns Outback Steakhouse and other restaurant chains. The Ceres team could not find evidence of either taking action to trace and verify commodities, or implement policies to tackle deforestation. Neither company responded to a request for comment.

Low disclosure of deforestation policies has also been noted in the finance sector: A report issued earlier this year found that only 40 percent of 150 financial institutions surveyed had such a policy in place, down from 45 percent in 2023.

Explaining the divergence

In addition to exposing stark differences between company ambitions, the Ceres report also recommends steps that companies can take to reduce deforestation in their supply chains and hints at factors that explain the differing levels of ambition.

The authors did not break down how action on deforestation varies by type of business, for instance, but it’s notable that many retailers and restaurants scored poorly on tracing and verification of palm oil, the commodity that’s most widely tracked. The difference may be due to challenges in engaging suppliers; retailers will generally have a great number of supply-chain tiers between themselves and producers. 

Food brands achieved higher rates for tracking and verification of commodities, with some exceptions. Kraft Heinz, for example, reported tracing just 5 percent of the palm oil it purchases back to source, and to having verified the same fraction as deforestation and conversion-free. The company, which reported $26 billion in sales in 2024, made no disclosures about soy, cattle, cocoa, timber, pulp or paper. The company did not return a request for comment.

Exposure to European markets is another factor driving company action, added Calli VanderWilde, food and forests manager at Ceres. The EU’s Regulation on Deforestation-free Products, which is due to come into force next month, requires companies to prove that the commodities covered — cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, rubber and soy — are deforestation-free before selling them. 

Positive outlook

Palm oil is most widely tracked because companies and investors started paying attention to the deforestation risks associated with the commodity around 15 years ago, noted Richards. Supply chains for some other commodities, including cattle, are often complex, she added. Indeed, companies often seen as sustainability leaders, including Nestlé and Danone, have been criticized by other nonprofits for doing too little to address livestock emissions. But at least when it comes to deforestation, Richards expects the availability of new tools and technology will allow companies to track and verify at much improved levels in the near future.

In addition to working with individual suppliers, Richards said that companies can ensure tracking and verification is as efficient as possible by joining jurisdictional or regional efforts to eliminate deforestation. Such projects help tackle the root causes of deforestation and reduce the risk that protecting one area simply leads to increased conversion nearby.

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What’s going on at COP30? You wouldn’t know much by reading the mainstream media, other than the relatively mild protests and the usual infrastructure problems nearly all U.N. climate summits face. But what should companies know about the substance of the event?

In this episode of our Two Steps Forward podcast, my co-host, consultant Solitaire Townsend and I take stock — her from inside the Blue Zone at COP30 in sweltering Belém, Brazil, and me, comfortably, at home.

Despite what global headlines suggest — a swirl of heat, humidity, flooding, bad food, logistical breakdowns and even “violent” (according to media reports) Indigenous protests — Townsend paints a more textured, human and hopeful picture of what’s actually happening on the ground. COPs are always messy, she reminds us. And this one may simply be messier.

Along the way, she asked a number of fellow attendees, “What would two steps forward be for COP30?”

What’s different this year

What distinguishes COP30 from its predecessors, Townsend argues, is the emergence of a formally recognized Action Agenda, Brazil’s plan to integrate hundreds of climate-aligned initiatives directly into the official Paris negotiation process.

For the first time, efforts historically considered “side events” — on forests, culture, mobility, health, the built environment, Indigenous rights and more — have been vetted, validated and added to the COP program itself. As Townsend notes, there are now over 200 PASs (for “Plan to Accelerate the Solution”). Each must set goals, outline implementation plans and report progress.

It may sound procedural, but the implications are significant. Governments still negotiate the “floor” — the minimal outcomes required under the Paris Agreement. But these action agendas represent the “ceiling” — what coalitions of governments, companies, nonprofits and communities are willing to do voluntarily and collaboratively.

This year, for the first time, the ceiling is formally incorporated into the main structure.

On the ground: Heat, color and humanity

It’s impossible to ignore the physical intensity: temperatures in the 90s Fahrenheit, humidity near saturation, long queues and limited shade. So intense, in fact, that COP organizers emailed attendees beforehand encouraging them not to wear business attire in order to avoid heat stress. The result, said Townsend, is the most colorful COP she’s attended, with bright shirts, sundresses, indigenous garments and Amazonian prints replacing the usual sea of gray suits. And with that, the energy between people seems to have shifted.

She also reminds us of the often-invisible labor force: thousands of young, local volunteers who guide, translate, manage crowds, clean facilities and proudly wear their COP30 T-shirts. Their enthusiasm, she says, is its own climate solution.

Violent protests?

While the international press breathlessly reported “violent clashes,” Townsend offered a reality check. A small group of Indigenous activists pushed through a COP entrance, resulting in what she described as “the tiniest of tussles” — hardly the baton-swinging melee portrayed in the media. Another much larger indigenous protest formed a peaceful, symbolic human chain around the perimeter, blocking access for several hours.

In a world where protests were restricted or suppressed at multiple recent COPs, many attendees welcomed the return of visible action from civil society.

Where are the corporations?

Media reports suggest that corporate attendance is sparse. Townsend’s experience? Many companies simply shifted their presence to events the week prior in São Paulo and Rio, where travel logistics were easier. She said she’s seen plenty of business leaders in Belém’s informal spaces.

Still, a notable development: U.S. federal officials are almost entirely absent. California Gov. Gavin Newsom has effectively become the highest-ranking American at COP30, underscoring his state’s outsized role in climate policy — and the vacuum left by federal disengagement.

Attending or not, business leaders should tune into the conversations at COP30 about forests, land-use risk, Indigenous sovereignty and nature-positive supply chains — all areas where companies face rising scrutiny and expectations.

Net-net, Townsend shared, she’s coming away energized. With the action agendas now part of the Paris framework, she believes this COP may mark a turning point—from years of setting goals to a decade focused on implementation.

That word — implementation — is the unofficial theme of COP30. And if that momentum holds, it might just be the two steps forward we’ve all been awaiting.

The Two Steps Forward podcast is available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, YouTube and other platforms — and, of course, via Trellis. Episodes publish every other Tuesday.

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